WEEI Radio in Boston reports that the New England Patriots may be targeting Alabama strong safety Mark Barron with one of their two picks towards the end of the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft. The 6’2″ 218-pound senior, who will miss the 2012 NFL Scouting Combine and possibly Alabama’s Pro Day after recently undergoing hernia surgery, had 66 tackles, a sack, and two interceptions for the Crimson Tide in 2011.

The Ball Says: The first team All-American and Thorpe Award finalist is a big hitter with solid size and good (if not great) speed, and Barron would almost certainly have been a first round pick had this recent operation not raised red flags about his durability, especially in light of the fact that his 2010 season was ended prematurely by a pectoral injury and that Barron battled rib injuries during the 2011 campaign. As things stand now it’s still possible that a team towards the end of round one may take a gamble on Barron’s talent, but it’s also very possible that he will slip into the draft’s second day.

Barron’s IDP value in dynasty fantasy football leagues is pretty stable, as a healthy Barron is easily the most talented safety prospect this season and should find his way into the starting lineup sooner as opposed to later, making him a safe bet to be the first defensive back off the board in rookie drafts this summer.

Mark Barron could also find himself the first rookie defensive back chosen in redraft formats if he lands in a favorable spot with a solid shot at early playing time, as the thumper could possess IDP DB2 upside were that to occur. However, if Barron’s injury woes linger or he somehow finds himself easing his way onto the field than Barron will be little more than a last round flier or early season waiver watch.

Adam Schefter of ESPN reports that defensive end Quinton Coples plans to participate in every drill at next week’s NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. The 6’6″, 285-pound Coples, who is projected by some as a potential top 10 pick in April’s NFL Draft, tallied 55 tackles, 7.5 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles as a senior at the University of North Carolina in 2011.

The Ball Says: Coples was something of a disappointment in his last year in Chapel Hill, leading to questions about his work ethic that Coples may be trying to dispel with a solid Combine after an outstanding showing in last month’s Senior Bowl.

Coples blend of size, athleticism, and reputation for taking plays off has driven comparisons to fellow Tar Heels standout Julius Peppers, and while Coples may not quite live up to that billing he certainly possesses all the physical tools to a formidable pass rusher in his own right in the NFL.

That blend of speed and size also means that he could easily play end in either a 3-4 or 4-3 defensive front, and Coples’ destination will, as is usually the case with Individual Defensive Players, have a significant impact on his fantasy value, especially in redraft formats.

In those formats should Coples land in favorable IDP situation, in a 4-3 defense with early playing time assured (such as with the Jacksonville Jaguars) then it’s possible that he could have Top 20 upside among fantasy defensive linemen, while his IDP redraft value would probably fall into DL3 territory at best should Coples find himself learning a new scheme as a rookie.

Coples value gets a bump in dynasty leagues regardless of scheme, where he will almost certainly be the first rookie at his position chosen in rookie drafts should the chips fall in his favor and even in a 3-4 he won’t fall outside the top three rookie defensive linemen or so.

Buffalo Bills defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt sees big things coming for linebacker Kelvin Sheppard in the middle of the Bills new 4-3 defense in 2012, according to report on the team’s website. In regards to Sheppard, who had 70 tackles for the team in 2011, Wannstedt said “I’ve got all the confidence in the world with Shep being the middle linebacker. To me he’s about what you’re looking for in a 4-3 middle linebacker.”

The Ball Says: The second year pro played middle linebacker while at LSU so he has some experience playing the position, and at 6’2″ and 248 pounds Sheppard has the physical tools to play the position, so his insertion into the starting lineup in Buffalo is intriguing from an IDP perspective.

The $64 question for Sheppard’s fantasy value will be whether or not he works his way into passing subpackages, as his playing time could determine whether the Bills third round pick in 2011 winds up a low-end IDP LB3 or has a shot at cracking the Top 25.

This question may not work itself out into the preseason given all the defensive uncertainty in the Nickel City (sort of ironic, no?), but Sheppard is at the very least a player worth keeping an eye on when OTAs begin and is worth a speculative roster stash in dynasty leagues even before then.

After bolstering his draft stock with an outstanding showing at the 2012 Senior Bowl North Carolina linebacker Zach Brown is hopeful that a another solid showing at the NFL Combine later this month will solidify his status as a potential first round selection in April’s NFL Draft, according to a report in the Howard County Times. The 6’2″, 230 pound Brown, who had 105 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 3 interceptions in 2011, said “It’s kind of like a dream. I pictured it and I dreamed about playing in the NFL, but now it’s actually about to happen.”

The Ball Says: Brown showed off his quickness and blazing speed in pursuit in Mobile, and should he have similar success in Indianapolis it’s indeed a very real possibility that the All-ACC performer last year will be taken in the Draft’s first round.

Brown’s size and skill set would seem extremely well suited to weakside linebacker in a 4-3 defense, which is the main thing that may keep him from going in the first round, as while he’s a fantastic fit as a 4-3 WILL it’s also the only spot he really fits well at, which could limit his draft day suitors.

In a best case scenario for redraft IDP leagues Brown would go to a 4-3 team where he’d likely see playing time early such as the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and were this to be the case Brown could sneak into the lower-end of IDP LB3 territory, while a less favorable landing spot would limit Brown’s 2012 appeal to a late flier in deeper leagues.

Brown’s dynasty fantasy football value is a bit higher, and in rookie drafts a good landing spot such as the Carolina Panthers would probably make Brown a Top 5 defensive pick, whereas a less comfy destination would leave Brown more towards (or just outside) the bottom of the Top 10.

According to a CBS Sports report, Houston Texans outside linebacker Mario Williams is the highest ranked free agent in the 2012 Class and could easily become the highest paid defensive player in the NFL should he hit the open market. The 27 year-old Williams, who had 11 tackles, 5 sacks, and a forced fumble in five games in 2011, is said to be a potential target of the Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Green Bay Packers, and any number of other teams should he leave Houston.

The Ball Says: I wrote an article at Bleacher Report earlier today that goes into a bit more detail about Williams’ current situation with the Texans, so I won’t bore you with the details here other than to say that it’s very unlikely that Williams will receive the franchise tag, meaning that on March 13 the sixth-year veteran will hit the open market like a cheap flat screen at Best Buy on Black Friday.

Williams fantasy value is swinging in the proverbial breeze right now, and where his IDP value for 2012 (and beyond) eventually lands will have a lot more to do with the scheme he finds himself in than the city itself.

Should Williams be retained by the Texans or go to another 3-4 team where he will continue to play outside linebacker then his IDP value is similar to that of a Clay Matthews type, i.e. a lower-end IDP LB3 prone to inconsistency that carries additional value in leagues that award highly for sacks.

However, should Williams choose to sign with a team that runs the 4-3 and return to his former role as a defensive end his IDP value would skyrocket, as “Super Mario” has posted two top 10 finishes in Default IDP Manor Scoring in his career and would immediately regain DL1 status should he return to his old position given the scarcity of talent fantasy-wise at defensive end.

As things stand today the IDP waters are about as murky as water gets where Mario Williams is concerned and it may be some time before they clear up, but you can rest assured we’ll be talking plenty about Williams over the next month.

The Associated Press has named Baltimore Ravens defensive end Terrell Suggs the 2011 National Football League Defensive Player of the Year, according to a report in the Washington Post. The 29 year-old Suggs, who had 70 tackles, 14 sacks, 7 forced fumbles, and 2 interceptions in 2011, beat out Minnesota Vikings defensive end Jared Allen for the award.

The Ball Says: Suggs led the AFC and posted a career high in sacks and led the entire National Football League in forced fumbles while posting the second highest tackle total of his nine year career, so we’re not exactly floored that he won, as Suggs was a very deserving candidate.

Suggs will turn 30 in October but seems to be in the prime of his career, finishing third among defensive linemen in Default IDP Manor Scoring last year, so IDP wise at that position he is what he is…an elite DL1.

In leagues where he’s classified as a LB it’s a bit trickier, as although his 144.5 fantasy points would have placed him in the top 10 a year ago I’m generally a proponent of counting on “big play” reliant IDPs, so at that position I’d viem him as a DeMarcus Ware-type mid-range IDP LB2 for 2012.

Of all the college football players whose 2012 NFL Draft stock took a hit during the past week’s events at the Senior Bowl none saw the free-fall of Nebraska cornerback Alfonzo Dennard according to several reports, including one by Wes Stueve. The 5’10″ 205 pounder was the Tatum-Woodson Award winner as the defensive back of the year in the Big 10 in 2011.

The Ball Says: Dennard’s trip to Mobile was an absolute nightmare, as he looked slow and was abused with regularity by receivers in coverage before withdrawing from the game due to a foot injury. That injury may well have been the root of the problem, but after after his terrible showing in Alabama there are some reports that a switch to safety may be Dennard’s best shot at NFL success, and a prospect once viewed as one of the top cornerbacks available will now need a strong Combine and Pro Day to keep from falling a full round or more in April’s NFL draft.

Dennard’s IDP fortunes weren’t that great to begin with in redraft leagues, although he may have had some “rookie corner” rule appeal in 2012(good enough to see significant playing time but not too good that opposing quarterbacks would be at all afraid to throw at him), but a switch to safety would render him much more a “project” and the player we saw last week isn’t seeing significant playing time any time soon, so Dennard’s short-term value, at least as things stand today, is minimal at best.

So far as Dynasty IDP leagues it depends on who you believe Dennard is. Is he a late-round flier (especially in CB-required formats) with potential who was simply dinged up but has loads of potential, even as a safety, or do you think he’s just another great college player who was only a great college player? My money says the answer leans more toward the former than the latter, but Dennard will almost certainly open the 2012 fantasy season on most waiver wires.

Numbers in parentheses denote Final Preseason Ranking/2011 Finish.

Fantasy football stats based on Default IDP Manor Scoring.

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

Charles Woodson – CB, Green Bay Packers: (DB9/DB2)

After earning an honorable mention in this category in 2010 Woodson takes home Most Valuable Player Honors at his position on the heels of a 2011 season in which he racked up 74 tackles, 2 sacks, 7 interceptions, a forced fumble, and scored a touchdown. A potential move to free safety in 2012 casts a bit of a shadow over Woodson’s IDP prospects in 2012, but for now the 14th year veteran should just bask in yet another year as one of fantasy football’s finest cornerbacks.

Honorable Mention: Roman Harper – SS, New Orleans Saints (DB7/DB3), Antoine Bethea – FS, Indianapolis Colts (DB12/DB8)

BUST OF THE YEAR

T.J. Ward – SS, Cleveland Browns: (DB1/DB158)

I’m not generally one to use injuries as a reason to call a player a bust, but even before suffering the foot injury that ended the second year pro’s season after eight games T.J. Ward’s IDP production had fallen completely off a cliff compared to his outstanding rookie year. In eight games this season Ward managed only 39 tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble, compared to 60 stops, a sack, and a forced fumble over that same stretch a season ago. Perhaps it was a “sophomore slump”, perhaps it was the improved play of Cleveland’s front 7, or maybe it was just the volatility inherent to IDP defensive backs, but there’s little question that no player at his position left his fantasy owners more frustrated in 2011 than T.J. Ward.

(Dis)Honorable Mention: Oshiomogho Atogwe – FS, Washington Redskins (DB14/DB100), William Moore – SS, Atlanta Falcons (DB17/DB93)

STEAL OF THE DRAFT:

Charles Tillman – CB, Chicago Bears:

Chicago Bears cornerback Charles Tillman has long been a viable IDP option, tallying top 30 fantasy finishes in each of the past six seasons, but we readily admit that we didn’t anticipate that “Peanut” would have the finest season of his nine year career in 2011, tying a career high with 82 tackles, notching seven takeaways, and scoring two touchdowns while finishing as the leading fantasy scorer at his position. At only 30 years old Tillman should have plenty of gas left in the tank, so as long as the Cover-2 is the defense of choice in the Windy City Tillman should maintain plenty of IDP value moving forward.

Honorable Mention: Morgan Burnett – SS, Green Bay Packers (DB30/DB4), Kam Chancellor – SS, Seattle Seahawks (DB29/DB6)

WAIVER WIRE WONDER OF THE YEAR

Jairus Byrd – FS, Buffalo Bills (NR/DB5)

After failing to crack the Top 40 fantasy defensive backs in his first two seasons in the National Football League Buffalo Bills free safety Jairus Byrd erupted in 2011, making a career high 98 tackles, chipping in a sack, three interceptions, and three forced fumbles on his way to a top five fantasy finish at his position. New Buffalo defensive coordinator Dave Wanndstedt may make some changes to the Bills defense, and IDP defensive backs are an inconsistent bunch to begin with, so counting on a repeat of Byrd’s stellar IDP production last year may be a risky bet, but fantasy owners who scooped Byrd off their IDP waiver wires were undoubtedly pleased with the return on their minimal investment.

Honorable Mention: Jason McCourty – CB, Tennessee Titans (NR/DB7), Kyle Arrington – CB, New England Patriots (NR/DB9)

Russ Lande of the Sporting News reports that South Carolina defensive end Melvin Ingram has enjoyed a very strong week of practices at the Senior Bowl in Mobile Alabama, strengthening the odds that he will be a first round selection in April’s NFL Draft. The 6’2″, 276 pound All-American had 48 tackles, 10 sacks, and two interceptions for the Gamecocks last year.

The Ball Says: Lande described Ingram as having a “rare combination of quickness, agility and power closing”, and with his solid showing to this point in Mobile not only is Melvin Ingram almost certainly a first round pick but it’s quite possible that he won’t last past the middle of the round.

What makes Ingram even more appealing for IDP purposes is that there’s little to no chance that Ingram will end up as a 3-4 outside linebacker, making him quite possibly the most desirable rookie defensive lineman heading into 2012 for fantasy purposes.

Generally speaking it’s more exception than rule for a defensive lineman to make a significant fantasy impact in his first season, but it’s been done before, and (as is usually the case with rookie IDPs) the situation that Ingram finds himself in 2012 will go a long way towards determining his redraft value.

Should he find a landing spot that offers significant playing time early he could offer low-end IDP DL2 value for next season, and while being chosen by a team that might ease Melvin Ingram in a bit could relegate him to late-round flier status in redraft IDP formats (where he could be a steal should opportunity knock later in the year) he’ll certainly be among the first rookies at his position off the board this summer for fantasy owners looking towards the future.

The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles, who are in dire need of help at linebacker, will be keeping a very close eye on Audie Cole of North Carolina State at this weekend’s Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama. Cole, a 2011 All-ACC Honorable Mention, had 108 tackles, 5.5 sacks, and 4 forced fumbles last year.

The Ball Says: Cole’s a solid tackler that has shown a nose for the football during his collegiate career, and while he lacks blazing speed and could stand to bulk up a bit his 6’5″ frame would certainly seem capable of supporting some extra weight and Matt Miller, lead NFL Draft Writer at Bleacher Report and founder of New Era Scouting, liked what he saw of Cole in the first day of Senior Bowl practices, and his opinion carries a great deal of weight in these parts.

Cole’s IDP prospects, especially in the short term, are a lot like opening a sports bar…it’s all about location. Should a team like the Eagles, who have a glaring need at MLB, take Cole in the third or fourth round he could vie to be the first rookie IDP selected in redraft fantasy leagues and be one of the first handful taken in dynasties, with the potential for a top 25 finish at his position in 2012.

However, a less desirable landing spot behind an established starter or in an unfavorable scheme would drop Cole several slots in dynasty IDP leagues and make him at best a late flier in deeper redrafts, although as Colin McCarthy of the Tennessee Titans or Pat Angerer of the Indianapolis Colts have shown sometimes all it takes is a sliver of opportunity for an IDP stalwart to break out.